The 2026 Formula 1 season is currently precisely halfway over, with 12 races left till December 4th.

Having won six of the first twelve races and been on the podium ten times, Mercedes' talented Kimi Antonelli continues to lead the Drivers' Championship. 

It should come as no surprise that the 19-year-old Italian is receiving a lot of support in the prediction markets; as of this writing, Polymarket gives him a 74.8% chance of winning this year's Drivers' Championship. 

But only 59 points separate colleague George Russell in second place from Antonelli at the top of the standings, while Lando Norris has also entered the race after winning back-to-back GPs in Hungary and the Netherlands. So, as of this writing, who is the best value choice?

After you register and make a $10 deposit, you will receive $20 with our special Polymarket promo code, CORG. See our list of the top sports prediction market apps if you want more ways to trade on Formula One.

How Have the Markets Changed Thus Far in the Drivers' Championship?

https://polymarket.com/event/2026-f1-drivers-champion

Antonelli's win probability has fluctuated between 5.3% and 75.4% between January 10 and July 27, indicating that this market has been somewhat erratic in the first few weeks of the season. 

After the Italian won the Grand Prix at Monte Carlo on June 7th for the fifth time in a row, this value first reached a peak of 71.6%. When Antonelli finished third in the Hungarian Grand Prix on July 26th, behind Norris and Max Verstappen, it hit a new high of 75.4%. Other leading prediction market systems have also seen this change.

It's interesting to note that in the last six races, he has only won once, while Norris, Russell, Hamilton, and Charles Leclerc have all won twice. Despite this, since the end of June, Antonelli's price and win probability have gradually increased because there isn't currently a strong competitor.

George Russell finished third at Circuit Zandvoort last time around, but his chances fell to a new low of 5.3% on August 25. Russell still had two victories and six podium finishes in 2026, so this decline might be an overreaction on the part of traders.

Lewis Hamilton's victory probability peaked at 17.4%, and he has consistently traded within a significantly smaller range. He presently has a 6.7% chance of winning on Polymarket, and he will compete in September at three locations where he has had tremendous historical success.

Discovering Value: Which Value Selections Are the Best?

The propensity of prediction markets to overreact to current events and news is well known. 

This has been especially clear in Antonelli's pricing, which has mirrored his first amazing run of form between March 15 and June 7 and his somewhat unanticipated climb to notoriety.

Russell, a teammate, may be overpriced in the F1 Drivers' Championship market due to his relative inconsistency, especially at his current price of 74.9¢. 

Therefore, depending on your risk tolerance and mindset, there can be better value choices even though he is still the clear favorite. Here are a few choices to think about!

"Kimi Antonelli" | "No" at 25.2¢ | 25.1% Probability

https://polymarket.com/event/2026-f1-drivers-champion

With a 74.8% win probability in the Drivers' Championship market, Antonelli continues to be the most obvious choice at first glance.

Given that Antonelli has only won once in his previous six games, it is undeniably true that his "Yes" price has no upside. Antonelli's lead at the top of the Drivers' Championship standings is still quite narrow at just 59 points, and he is likewise comparatively young and unproven. The top five drivers in the race are currently separated by just 87 points.

In the end, the best real-time value is obtained by purchasing the Antonelli "No" contract at 25.2¢. This result is a little undervalued, and as the season goes on, I think "No" will trade much higher. Additionally, this gives you the chance to sell back to the market and turn a profit before the matter is resolved.

“George Russell” | “Yes” at 5.4¢ | 5.3% Chance

https://polymarket.com/

Following some outstanding results in preseason testing, Russell began the season as the overwhelming favorite in this market. 

Before the Australian Grand Prix on March 7th, his win probability was 46.0%. Since then, it has risen to 61% before falling to a low of 5.3% as of this writing.

Russell's pricing had been less erratic than Antonelli's before June 14th because the British driver was much more experienced and possibly supported by better informed F1 fans. But ahead of the upcoming race in Monza on September 6th, traders have responded harshly to his recent string of failures.

Given his relative consistency and the fact that he is only 59 points behind Antonelli in the Drivers' Championship, the 28-year-old has a stronger chance of winning his first championship than his pricing suggests.

At just 5.4¢, you may immediately purchase "Yes" shares on Russell winning, and this price might rise considerably later in the season. This will provide you the chance to possibly sell your stake and secure an early profit.

"Lewis Hamilton" | "Yes" at 6.8¢ | 6.7% Probability

https://polymarket.com/event/2026-f1-drivers-champion

Lewis Hamilton might win a record-breaking eighth Drivers' Championship in 2026, according to nostalgic Formula One fans, but this seems doubtful.

He has, however, clearly profited from Ferrari's latest engine improvements, which have resulted in increased consistency and corner speeds that were up to 10 km/h faster at Silverstone on July 5.

In the British Grand Prix, he finished third despite trailing teammate Leclerc by just +0.772 seconds and had the fourth-fastest lap time overall. He is currently tied for second place in the Drivers' Championship and is only 59 points behind Antonelli, so he will undoubtedly be out of the running for some time.

The British driver has raced regularly and finished on the podium five times so far. In September, he will travel to Monza and Madrid, where Hamilton has won 11 historic races. Therefore, his present "Yes" price of just 6.8¢ offers both short-term value and a substantial upside as the season goes on.

The Final Word: How to Trade the F1 Drivers' Championship Market on Polymarket

You will trade directly against your peers rather than the house because Polymarket functions as an exchange. This allows you to swiftly switch positions and purchase and sell contracts in order to lock in profits before the market settles.

In the F1 Drivers' Championship market, this is unquestionably advised because Lewis Hamilton and George Russell are both still greatly undervalued.

While Hamilton offers short-term value with Ferrari's significant engine upgrades and the September race schedule, Russell's price of just 6¢ is extremely low and should rise gradually over time.

On the other hand, trading "No" on Antonelli indicates that the Italian's price has probably peaked and that his actual win chance is far lower than what is currently suggested. 

Whichever person you choose, don't forget to regularly monitor the market. As prices continue to fluctuate, this will help you maximize the timing of your transactions and even spot fresh chances. For any further F1 markets that might be worthwhile, you should also look through the Polymarket app!

Do any of these trades appeal to you? When you register and make a $10 deposit on Polymarket, use our exclusive CORG promo code to receive a $20 trading bonus.