The NFL and NCAA are issuing warnings regarding prediction markets as the 2025 football season is scheduled to begin in earnest this weekend.

The NFL said on Monday that investing in sports derivatives contracts through websites like Kalshi and Polymarket is forbidden for all league employees, including players.  The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal regulator of event contract sites, received comments from the league in 2024. In those comments, the league expressed concern that operators in that industry aren't subject to the same level of regulation as sportsbook organizations.

"These platforms mimic sports betting, they are covered as prohibited under our policy,” said Sabrina Perel, NFL vice president and chief compliance officer, at a Monday press event.

The NFL is the most wagered league in the US, and it reported no incidents due to betting last year.  Perel stated that the league brought in past players to instruct current athletes in live, required sports wagering trading sessions, but no new sports wagering laws were announced for the 2025 season other from the antiprediction market position.

NFL and prediction markets are becoming more tense

The timing of the NFL's Monday news conference is significant, and not just because the league's first regular season game is on Thursday, September 4. However, several watchers in the betting and prediction market industries claimed that there weren't many surprises to come out of the event.

A week after Kalshi filed with the CFTC to sell football event contracts—basically bets on spreads and totals—as well as player propositions, the league made it clear that players and employees are prohibited from dealing with sports derivatives.  For Kalshi, which has up until now provided yes/no sports contracts that are similar to moneyline bets, that is new ground.

According to NFL vice president of sports betting David Highhill, the league is worried about bets on things like injuries and referee calls, as well as bets where players have complete control over the results.

“We’re concerned that if these markets aren’t properly regulated, they could be susceptible to manipulation or price distortion,” he said at the press conference.

The press conference was held over a week after Robinhood Markets announced that it would provide event contracts for every NFL regular-season game as well as all Power 4 and independent college football tilts this year.  The NFL and the NCAA may have another situation to keep an eye on if Robinhood, which has a connection with Kalshi, expands its competition with conventional sportsbook operators.

NCAA Not a Prediction Markets Fan, Either The NCAA responded to Robinhood's statement by stating that it is "deeply concerned" about the absence of regulatory control of prediction markets in comparison to the procedures established for conventional sportsbook operators.

"We will continue to analyze developments of this market and work with industry leaders to help ensure guardrails and regulations to protect NCAA competition, student-athletes, coaches, and officials,” said Tim Buckley, a senior vice president for the NCAA, in an August 22 statement.

Buckley went on to say that businesses that are not subject to state regulatory control, to which gaming corporations are accountable, "pose a threat to competition integrity and student-athlete safety."